Researchers are expressing significant concern about the likelihood of a large-scale volcanic eruption occurring on Earth within this century. The probability of such an event is estimated to be one in six. Scientists note that humanity lacks a prepared action plan to address this issue.
Professor of climatology Markus Stoffel emphasizes that such an eruption could lead to "climatic chaos," similar to the disaster caused by the eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia in 1815. This event resulted in a sharp decline in global temperatures, leading to crop failures, famine, outbreaks of disease, and tens of thousands of human casualties.
Unlike the "year without a summer" that followed the Tambora eruption, a megavolcano in the 21st century could exacerbate existing problems caused by humanity's reliance on fossil fuels. Scientists suggest that the consequences of such an eruption could be even more devastating than those experienced in 1815. Furthermore, greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere over the past century may further lower temperatures on Earth, according to the Daily Mail.
A study by volcanologist Thomas Aubrey highlights that a hotter and more unstable atmosphere will facilitate the faster spread of sulfur dioxide and the cooling aerosols formed from it, intensifying the cooling effect. Dr. Aubrey also points out the impact of climate change on volcanic behavior: the melting and disappearance of glaciers above underground magma reservoirs may weaken the pressure holding the magma in place.
Increased precipitation caused by climate change could also contribute to explosive events, similar to "steam bombs," where moisture penetrates deeply into the cracks of both active and dormant volcanoes.